![\"climate](https://planetsave.com/"http:////planetsave.com//wp-content//uploads//2015//06//nafeez-ahmed-2040-climate-change-collapse-Insurgence-article.jpg/")
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Research based on GRO modelling informed a newly-released UK Government report for the insurance industry assessing the risk of a near-term \u201cacute disruption to the global food supply.” The authors found that the global food system “is under chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and its vulnerability to acute disruptions is compounded by factors such as climate change<\/a>, water stress, ongoing globalisation and heightening political instability.”<\/p>\n Listed in the UK Evening Standard<\/em>\u2019s \u2018Power 1,000\u2019 Most Globally Influential Londoners, Dr. Nafeez recently won the 2015 Project Censored Award, known as the “Alternative Pulitzer Prize,” for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his work while writing for the Guardian. He is the author of A User\u2019s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It<\/em> (2010), and the scifi thriller novel ZERO POINT<\/em>, among other books. Officially contributing to the 9\/11 Commission and the 7\/7 Coroner\u2019s Inquest, Dr. Nafeez’ work on the root causes and covert operations linked to international terrorism have proven both the test of time and the value of his unique perspective.<\/p>\n This excellent job of reporting the probable results of climate change impacts to the global food supply is both timely and terrifying. There is no extremist ideology in current circulation more threatening than climate change denial, as you will clearly understand from reading this article. Please help support the efforts to circulate this information as widely as possible. by Nafeez Ahmed, New scientific models supported by the British government\u2019s Foreign Office show that if we don\u2019t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability.<\/p>\n Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don\u2019t believe it\u2019s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.<\/p>\n But even so, it\u2019s a sobering wake-up call, which shows that business-as-usual guarantees the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: our current way of life is not sustainable.<\/p>\n The new models are being developed at Anglia Ruskin University\u2019s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI), through a project called the \u2018Global Resource Observatory\u2019 (GRO).<\/p>\n The GRO is chiefly funded by the Dawe Charitable Trust, but its partners include the British government\u2019s Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO); British specialist insurance market, Lloyds of London; the Aldersgate Group, the environment coalition of leaders from business, politics and civil society; the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries; Africa Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the University of Wisconsin.<\/p>\n This week, Lloyds released a report for the insurance industry assessing the risk of a near-term \u201cacute disruption to the global food supply.\u201d Research for the project was led by Anglia Ruskin University\u2019s GSI, and based on its GRO modelling initiative.<\/p>\n The report explores the scenario of a near-term global food supply disruption, considered plausible on the basis of past events, especially in relation to future climate trends. The global food system, the authors find, is \u201cunder chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and its vulnerability to acute disruptions is compounded by factors such as climate change<\/a>, water stress, ongoing globalisation and heightening political instability.\u201d<\/p>\n Lloyd\u2019s scenario analysis shows that food production across the planet could be significantly undermined due to a combination of just three catastrophic weather events, leading to shortfalls in the production of staple crops, and ensuing price spikes.<\/p>\n In the scenario, which is \u201cset in the near future,\u201d wheat, maize and soybean prices \u201cincrease to quadruple the levels seen around 2000,\u201d while rice prices increase by 500%. This leads to rocketing stock prices for agricultural commodities, agricultural chemicals and agriculture engineering supply chains:<\/p>\n \u201cFood riots break out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America. The euro weakens and the main European stock markets lose 10% of their value; US stock markets follow and lose 5% of their value.\u201d<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n The scenario analysis demonstrates that a key outcome of any such systemic shock to the global food supply\u200a\u2014\u200aapart from \u201cnegative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200awould be geopolitical mayhem as well as escalating terrorism and civil unrest.<\/p>\n The purpose of exploring such scenarios is to prepare insurers for possibilities that are now more likely than previously assumed. The Lloyd\u2019s report points out:<\/p>\n \u201cWhat is striking about the scenario is that the probability of occurrence is estimated as significantly higher than the benchmark return period of 1:200 years applied for assessing insurers\u2019 ability to pay claims against extreme events.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n That leading insurance companies are now attempting to factor in potential losses from such crises is a major step forward in pushing the financial sector to recognise the dark-side of the current system of fossil fuel dependence<\/a>.<\/p>\n The report concludes:<\/p>\n \u201cA global production shock of the kind set out in this scenario would be expected to generate major economic and political impacts that could affect clients across a very wide spectrum of insurance classes.\u201d <\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n It would have \u201cmajor consequences for companies\u2019 investment income,\u201d with the potential to \u201cgenerate losses that span many years.\u201d It would also result in political instabilities that take \u201cdecades to resolve\u201d while imposing \u201cgreater restrictions on international business.\u201d<\/p>\n The scenario was developed for Lloyds by the Anglia Ruskin University team with the British Foreign Office\u2019s UK\/US Task Force on Resilience of the Global Food Supply Chain to Extreme Events.<\/p>\n The Foreign Office\u2019s food resilience Task Force began to come together late last year. An FCO document from February 2015 for a Task Force workshop throws light on its rationale, direction, and participants.<\/p>\n \u201cThe taskforce is looking at plausible worst case scenarios of disruption to the global agri-food system, caused by extreme weather events,\u201d the document explains. Taskforce projects aim to \u201cimprove understanding of how changing extreme weather events<\/a> (severity, type, frequency, geographical impact) may impact on global food security\u201d and to \u201cidentify how market and policy responses may exacerbate or ameliorate these effects.\u201d<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n Of particular concern to the FCO\u2019s taskforce is to determine \u201chow large shocks in agricultural production could occur (e.g. floods, droughts, wind storms),\u201d how these would translate into \u201ccrop reductions,\u201d and \u201chow society responds to high food prices or limited local availability.\u201d<\/p>\n Although coordinated by the FCO, other British government-backed programmes are involved, chiefly, the Global Food Security Programme and UK Science & Innovation Network, together representing the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA); the Department of Health; the Department for International Development (DFID); the Government Office for Science; the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; and the Scottish and Welsh governments.<\/p>\n On the US side, government involvement was limited to the Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition Security (CIMSANS), which is supported by the US State Department, and USAID\u2019s Famine Early Warning Systems Network.<\/p>\n Another participant was a senior researcher from the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), whose members include many leading international institutions.<\/p>\n I had been in touch with the Anglia Ruskin GSI team for a while, having previously reported on some of their work\u200a\u2014\u200aand this month joined GSI as a visiting research fellow.<\/p>\n Earlier this year, I attended an invite-only GRO steering committee meeting of scientists, technologists, financiers, economists, and academics, where GSI\u2019s Director, Dr. Aled Jones, delivered a detailed presentation on the modelling work done so far, what it implied, and where it was leading.<\/p>\n Dr. Jones was previously Deputy Director of the Programme for Sustainability Leadership at the University Cambridge, where he was Director of the British government\u2019s flagship Chevening Fellowships Economics of Climate Change Programme, supported by the UK Foreign Office to deliver the FCO\u2019s Strategic Framework. Jones also chairs a working group of the UK government\u2019s Department for Energy and Climate Change\u2019s Capital Markets Climate Initiative (CMCI).<\/p>\n Jones\u2019 GRO initiative has received direct funding from the Foreign Office to develop its modelling capacity, and he is a co-leader of the FCO Task Force\u2019s working group on \u2018Impacts\u2019, where he and his team apply the GRO models to assess the way crop reductions would affect global food security.<\/p>\n GRO is developing two types of model: an Agent-Based Model to explore short-term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social-economical-environmental systems; and a System Dynamics Model capable of providing projections for the next 5 years based on modelling the complex interconnections between finite resources, planetary carrying capacity, and the human economy.<\/p>\n \u201cThe financial and economic system is exposed to catastrophic short-term risks that the system cannot address in its current form,\u201d Dr. Jones told us.<\/p>\n He described GRO\u2019s use of the Agent-Based Model to capture and simulate the multiple factors that led to the 2011 Arab Spring events.<\/p>\n By successfully modeling the \u201cimpact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and the ensuing impact on food prices,\u201d he said, the model can then be recalibrated to \u201cexperiment with different scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on \u2018do-nothing\u2019 trends\u200a\u2014\u200athat is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.\u201d<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n Another steering committee member raised their hand: \u201cSo is this going to happen? Is this a forecast?\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cNo,\u201d said Jones. \u201cThis scenario is based on simply running the model forward. The model is a short-term model. It\u2019s not designed to run this long, as in the real world, trends are always likely to change, whether for better or worse.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cOkay, but what you\u2019re saying is that if there is no change in current trends, then this is the outcome?\u201d continued the questioner.<\/p>\n Jones nodded with a half-smile. \u201cYes,\u201d he said quietly.<\/p>\n In other words, simply running the Agent-Based Model forward cannot generate a reliable forecast of the future. For instance, no one anticipated the pace at which solar and wind energy<\/a> would become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. And the fact that governments and insurers are now beginning to scope such risks, and explore ways of responding, shows how growing awareness of the risks has the potential to trigger change.<\/p>\n Whether that change is big enough to avoid or mitigate the worst is another question. Either way, the model does prove in no uncertain terms that present-day policies are utterly bankrupt.<\/p>\n GRO\u2019s System Dynamics Model takes a different approach, building on the \u2018World3\u2019 model developed by scientists at Massachusetts Institute of Technology<\/a> (MIT), which famously forecast that humankind faced impending \u201climits to growth\u201d due to environmental and resource constraints.<\/p>\n In popular consciousness, the \u2018limits to growth\u2019 forecasts were wrong. But recent studies, including one by the Australian government\u2019s scientific research agency CSIRO, confirm that most of its predictions were startlingly prescient.<\/p>\n Dr. Jones and his team at Anglia Ruskin University have taken this confirmation several steps further, not only by testing the model against the real world, but by recalibrating it internally using new and updated data.<\/p>\n \u201cWorld3 was a very good, robust system,\u201d he told us. \u201cSome assumptions were incorrect and misparameterised\u200a\u2014\u200afor instance, life expectancy is smaller than assumed, and industrial and service outputs are larger than assumed. And the model was missing some shock dynamics and feedback loops.\u201d<\/p>\n The same questioner put his hand up and asked, \u201cDoes this mean the original model and its predictions are flawed?\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI would say the model was largely correct,\u201d said Jones. \u201cIt was right enough to give a fairly accurate picture of future limits to growth. But there are some incorrect parameters and gaps.\u201d<\/p>\n The System Dynamics Model, Jones explained, is designed to overcome the limitations of World3 by recalibrating the incorrect parameters, adding new parameters where necessary, and inputting fresh data. There are now roughly 2,000 parameters in the model, drawing on a database of key indicators on resources and social measures for 212 countries, from 1995 until today.<\/p>\n Jones\u2019 affirmation of the general accuracy of the limits to growth model was an obvious surprise to some in the room.<\/p>\n The original model forecasted global ecological and economic collapse by around the middle of the 21st century, due to the convergence of climate change, food and water scarcity, and the depletion of cheap fossil fuels<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200awhich chimes with both the GRO\u2019s models.<\/p>\n Last year, Dr. Graham Turner updated his CSIRO research at the University of Melbourne, concluding that:<\/p>\n \u201c\u2026 the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU [business-as-usual] scenario.\u201d<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n For the first time, then, we know that in private, British and US government agencies are taking seriously longstanding scientific data showing that a business-as-usual trajectory will likely lead to civilisational collapse within a few decades\u200a\u2014\u200agenerating multiple near-term global disruptions along the way.<\/p>\n “The question that remains is: What we are going to do about it?” –Dr. Nafeez Ahmed <\/em><\/strong> Dr Nafeez Ahmed is an investigative journalist, bestselling author and international security scholar. He is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Faculty of Science and Technology at Anglia Ruskin University. A former Guardian writer, he writes the \u2018System Shift\u2019 column for VICE\u2019s Motherboard, and is also a columnist for Middle East Eye.<\/p>\n He is the winner of a 2015 Project Censored Award, known as the \u2018Alternative Pulitzer Prize\u2019, for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his Guardian work, and was selected in the Evening Standard\u2019s \u2018Power 1,000\u2019 most globally influential Londoners.<\/p>\n Nafeez has also written for The Independent, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman, Le Monde diplomatique, New Internationalist, Counterpunch, Truthout, among others. He is the author of A User\u2019s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It (2010), and the scifi thriller novel ZERO POINT, among other books. His work on the root causes and covert operations linked to international terrorism officially contributed to the 9\/11 Commission and the 7\/7 Coroner\u2019s Inquest.<\/p>\n This exclusive is being released for free in the public interest, and was enabled by crowdfunding. I\u2019d like to thank my amazing community of patrons for their support, which gave me the opportunity to work on this story. If you appreciated it, please support independent, investigative journalism for the global commons via Patreon.com<\/a>, where you can donate as much or as little as you like.<\/p>\n Nafeez Ahmed Published on Jun 19, 2015. Releasing this exclusive freely in the public interest, best-selling author Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is offering a unique view of the critically significant impact that climate change is having on our lives, our livelihoods, and even our likelihood of survival on this planet. Dr Nafeez Ahmed is an international security scholar and investigative journalist, currently serving as a 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this planet. Dr Nafeez Ahmed is an international security scholar and investigative journalist, currently serving as a…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44216"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/183"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44216\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/planetsave.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
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\n–Originally Published in INSURGE intelligence<\/a><\/p>\nScientific model supported by UK Government Taskforce flags risk of civilisation\u2019s collapse by 2040<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nFounder and Editor-in-chief of INSURGE intelligence
\n“Award-winning journo, crowdfunding investigations into power, to empower people and save the planet.”<\/em>
\n
\nJune 19, 2015
\n
\n
\nThis story is published by INSURGE INTELLIGENCE, a new crowd-funded investigative journalism project. Support us to break the stories that no one else will\u200a\u2014\u200abecome a patron of independent, investigative journalism for the global commons.<\/p>\nScientific Model Indicates Climate Change-Induced Collapse of Civilization by 2040<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Disruption risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Three steps from crisis<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Governments want answers<\/strong><\/h3>\n
<\/a>Collapse<\/strong><\/h3>\n
<\/a>Limits to Growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n
<\/a>
\n
\n <\/p>\n<\/a>
\nFounder and Editor-in-chief of INSURGE intelligence<\/a>
\nAward-winning journo, crowdfunding investigations into power, to empower people and save the planet.
\nwww.patreon.com\/nafeez<\/a>
\nwww.nafeezahmed.com<\/a><\/p>\n
\nAll rights reserved by the author.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"